纳入逐局
24,971,394
2026-01-25 到 2026-04-24
目标：判断游戏体验差异来自游戏本身、用户标签/行为、运营分层，还是可能存在新手控制、最高盈利/倍数封控或按用户调节。
| 问题 | 当前结论 | 证据 | 过度解读风险 | 下一步 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 厂商/游戏 RTP、中奖率、波动率是否不同 | 明确不同；同厂商内部游戏 RTP 分布也很分散 | 高 | 低 | 补理论 RTP、RTP 档位、配置版本，做理论 vs 实际偏差 |
| 用户标签是否和 RTP/中奖率/波动率有关 | 有关；VIP、复充频率、生命周期标签的整体 RTP/利润率/波动率不同 | 高相关 | 中 | 控制游戏、投注额、局数、时段、余额、奖励余额 |
| 是否能证明按用户分层调 RTP/算法 | 当前不能证明。同游戏控制后低价值标签 RTP 偏离仍为负；严格控制后偏离范围 0.26pp 到 9.98pp | 低到中 | 高 | 需要策略组/实验组、供应商 RTP 配置、RNG/round 审计日志 |
| 是否存在新手前几局固定曲线 | 当前只能看到首局/前20局聚合曲线；新手 win-lose-recover 模式率 1.73%，成熟/晚观测用户 2.44% | 中 | 中到高 | 需要真实首局标记、会话 ID、余额、活动/奖励余额、实验组字段 |
| 是否存在最高盈利/20倍充值封控 | 最大单局盈利/充值比最高 48.09x，>=20x 用户 11；若存在20x封控，也不是全局硬上限 | 中 | 中 | 用实时累计充值/提现/余额和逐局高水位重算；补风控限额/赔付上限配置 |
| 是否存在游戏组合/推荐层面的策略 | 很可能存在或至少值得复核；不同标签集中玩的游戏和平台明显不同 | 中 | 中 | 补首页曝光、推荐位、点击入口、游戏入口来源 |
| 厂商 | 局数 | RTP | 中奖率 | 波动 | 游戏P10 | 游戏P50 | 游戏P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 17,667,071 | 94.04% | 29.23% | 4.95 | 79.29% | 92.06% | 102.11% |
| Tada | 2,318,441 | 94.59% | 28.02% | 5.04 | 81.08% | 93.20% | 106.53% |
| Spribe | 291,265 | 95.29% | 21.57% | 3.66 | 94.22% | 95.32% | 98.08% |
| PP | 1,174,352 | 93.53% | 28.79% | 4.08 | 80.56% | 92.55% | 107.94% |
| POPOK | 863,370 | 92.88% | 29.62% | 4.23 | 84.88% | 92.72% | 99.75% |
| PANDA | 675,202 | 95.17% | 29.33% | 4.00 | 85.14% | 93.41% | 104.52% |
| CP | 369,668 | 93.22% | 23.41% | 4.34 | 73.88% | 90.52% | 103.19% |
| G759 | 564,540 | 91.85% | 27.48% | 4.24 | 81.65% | 93.19% | 99.91% |
| FaChai | 268,134 | 93.85% | 30.59% | 4.08 | 78.52% | 90.47% | 102.30% |
| Evolution | 8,472 | 95.99% | 50.08% | 1.44 | 92.04% | 93.87% | 95.69% |
| 标签 | 分层 | 整体RTP | 中奖率 | 波动 | 同游戏RTP偏离 | 严格控制偏离 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| recharge_frequency_segment | 07_ultra_daily_60_plus_days | 94.53% | 28.58% | 4.97 | 0.14 | -0.86 |
| recharge_frequency_segment | 06_daily_like_30_59_days | 95.12% | 28.63% | 4.77 | 0.89 | -0.71 |
| recharge_frequency_segment | 05_high_15_29_days | 94.30% | 29.13% | 4.63 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| recharge_frequency_segment | 04_frequent_8_14_days | 94.40% | 28.98% | 4.69 | 0.64 | 1.74 |
| recharge_frequency_segment | 03_weekly_4_7_days | 93.11% | 29.12% | 4.53 | -0.49 | 0.84 |
| recharge_frequency_segment | 02_occasional_2_3_days | 91.28% | 28.85% | 4.45 | -2.44 | 0.76 |
| recharge_frequency_segment | 01_one_deposit_day | 90.37% | 28.41% | 4.34 | -3.33 | 0.26 |
| recharge_frequency_segment | 00_no_observed_deposit | 90.69% | 28.86% | 4.74 | -2.89 | 9.98 |
| vip_level | (missing) | 94.29% | 28.84% | 4.97 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| vip_level | VIP1 | 93.59% | 28.93% | 4.75 | -0.18 | 3.32 |
| vip_level | VIP4 | 94.03% | 29.01% | 4.51 | 0.12 | -1.76 |
| vip_level | VIP2 | 94.00% | 29.02% | 4.84 | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| vip_level | VIP6 | 93.87% | 24.80% | 4.41 | -0.21 | -2.18 |
| vip_level | VIP3 | 93.40% | 28.77% | 4.54 | -0.54 | -1.58 |
| vip_level | VIP5 | 97.94% | 27.63% | 4.36 | 2.83 | -0.31 |
| vip_level | VIP0 | 91.75% | 28.25% | 4.41 | -1.98 | 4.77 |
| vip_level | LEVEL_0 | 83.53% | 28.02% | 4.22 | -9.91 | 2.08 |
| vip_level | CUSTOMIZE_NO_DISCOUNT | 102.55% | 28.82% | 4.97 | 8.41 | NA |
| 人群 | 首局用户 | 满20局 | 首局命中 | 前3局盈利 | 前10局亏损 | 赢-输-回拉 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mature_or_late_observed_ge_30d | 13,874 | 9,335 | 29.18% | 20.30% | 71.13% | 2.44% |
| other_registered_observed | 7,969 | 5,500 | 29.64% | 20.41% | 70.74% | 2.16% |
| true_newbie_register_to_bet_0_7d | 1,107 | 1,101 | 29.00% | 21.16% | 74.16% | 1.73% |
| 局序 | 用户 | RTP | 中奖率 | 盈利/投注 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | 1,107 | 80.15% | 29.00% | -19.85% |
| 2.00 | 1,107 | 104.60% | 27.73% | 4.60% |
| 3.00 | 1,106 | 63.59% | 26.85% | -36.41% |
| 4.00 | 1,105 | 80.27% | 28.87% | -19.73% |
| 5.00 | 1,105 | 115.95% | 29.05% | 15.95% |
| 6.00 | 1,103 | 77.21% | 27.29% | -22.79% |
| 7.00 | 1,103 | 81.00% | 27.38% | -19.00% |
| 8.00 | 1,103 | 76.46% | 28.01% | -23.54% |
| 9.00 | 1,103 | 89.59% | 29.74% | -10.41% |
| 10.00 | 1,103 | 105.02% | 29.56% | 5.02% |
| 11.00 | 1,103 | 81.59% | 28.38% | -18.41% |
| 12.00 | 1,103 | 68.44% | 27.74% | -31.56% |
| 13.00 | 1,103 | 130.29% | 28.29% | 30.29% |
| 14.00 | 1,102 | 80.06% | 26.50% | -19.94% |
| 15.00 | 1,102 | 90.97% | 28.86% | -9.03% |
| 16.00 | 1,102 | 98.39% | 26.59% | -1.61% |
| 17.00 | 1,101 | 90.46% | 29.70% | -9.54% |
| 18.00 | 1,101 | 88.35% | 26.88% | -11.65% |
| 19.00 | 1,101 | 72.47% | 28.79% | -27.53% |
| 20.00 | 1,101 | 83.63% | 26.61% | -16.37% |
| 类型 | 指标 | 用户数 | 最大值 | P99 | >=20x用户 | 18-20x | 20-22x | 局数 | 局占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| user_deposit_ratio | 最大单局盈利 / 累计充值 | 9,740 | 48.09 | 5.99 | 11.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | NA | NA |
| user_deposit_ratio | 最大单局派奖 / 累计充值 | 9,740 | 51.09 | 6.09 | 11.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | NA | NA |
| user_deposit_ratio | 累计游戏盈利 / 累计充值 | 9,740 | 79.82 | 5.20 | 9.00 | 2.00 | 5.00 | NA | NA |
| user_deposit_ratio | 日粒度累计盈利高水位 / 当日累计充值 | 9,740 | 144.92 | 11.01 | 30.00 | 7.00 | 10.00 | NA | NA |
| round_win_multiple | 单局 winMultiple >= 1x | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 3,963,817 | 15.87% |
| round_win_multiple | 单局 winMultiple >= 5x | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,000,811 | 4.01% |
| round_win_multiple | 单局 winMultiple >= 10x | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 502,971 | 2.01% |
| round_win_multiple | 单局 winMultiple >= 20x | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 281,799 | 1.13% |
| round_win_multiple | 单局 winMultiple >= 50x | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 46,887 | 0.19% |
| round_win_multiple | 单局 winMultiple >= 100x | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 7,139 | 0.03% |
| round_win_multiple | 单局 winMultiple >= 200x | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 944.00 | 0.00% |
| round_win_multiple | 单局 winMultiple >= 500x | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 108.00 | 0.00% |
| round_win_multiple | 单局 winMultiple >= 1000x | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 10.00 | 0.00% |
完整文字报告和 CSV 已输出，网页适合分享，CSV 适合继续追查具体游戏、标签和极值样本。