本页怎么用 · 补充阅读
JK7 与 TA99 算法审计：先看结论，再看证据
回答的问题帮助理解某个专项指标、页面或平台样本。
用来做的决策作为核心页面的证据补充，先看结论，再回查明细。
落地动作把有价值的分层或异常转成可监控指标，再放入新平台每日看板。
证据边界请注意页面口径和样本覆盖，不把单个专项孤立当作最终因果结论。
总览结论
| 平台 | 局数 | RTP | 中奖率 | 波动率 | 10x+率 | 注册24h RTP差 | 首充24h RTP差 | 高低下注 RTP差 | control非零占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JK7 | 417,791,266 | 95.33% | 29.59% | 4.61 | 2.08% | +1.95pp | +1.89pp | -0.19pp | 0.00% |
| TA99 新平台 | 24,971,394 | 94.06% | 28.84% | 4.87 | 2.01% | +1.53pp | -1.57pp | +0.46pp | 0.00% |
核心判断：两边都能看到厂商、游戏、下注区间、用户阶段之间的 RTP/中奖率/波动率差异；但这些差异不能直接等同于“后台按单个用户调 RTP”。更稳妥的解释是游戏选择、下注结构、生命周期、活动/奖励和样本覆盖共同造成。要证明真实策略组或新手保护，需要策略组 ID、算法版本、供应商配置版本、RNG/round 审计日志和活动曝光/领取日志。
JK7 本地数据
整体 RTP95.33%
中奖率29.59%
波动率4.61
10x+ 大奖率2.085%
1. 时间段与周期波动
| 时间段 | 局数占比 | RTP | 相对整体 | 中奖率 | 波动率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_凌晨_00_05 | 28.84% | 95.26% | -0.07pp | 29.59% | 4.62 |
| 01_上午_06_11 | 11.95% | 95.12% | -0.21pp | 29.59% | 4.65 |
| 02_下午_12_17 | 26.15% | 95.36% | +0.03pp | 29.58% | 4.60 |
| 03_晚上_18_23 | 33.07% | 95.45% | +0.12pp | 29.61% | 4.59 |
小时/日期波动只能说明聚合体验随时间变化，不能单独证明后台按时间调 RTP；需要供应商配置版本、RNG 日志和实验组字段来升级证据。
2. 新手 24 小时与普通玩家
| 注册后阶段 | 局数占比 | RTP | 相对整体 | 中奖率 | 波动率 | 10x+率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_register_0_24h | 24.48% | 96.96% | +1.63pp | 29.73% | 4.69 | 2.12% |
| 01_register_24_72h | 13.74% | 95.49% | +0.16pp | 29.57% | 4.61 | 2.09% |
| 02_register_3_7d | 15.87% | 95.02% | -0.31pp | 29.55% | 4.60 | 2.08% |
| 03_register_gt_7d | 39.75% | 95.01% | -0.32pp | 29.57% | 4.61 | 2.08% |
| unknown | 6.15% | 90.87% | -4.46pp | 29.31% | 4.28 | 1.95% |
| 首充后阶段 | 局数占比 | RTP | 相对整体 | 中奖率 | 波动率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_first_recharge_0_24h | 26.85% | 96.90% | +1.57pp | 29.73% | 4.68 |
| 01_first_recharge_24_72h | 13.38% | 95.27% | -0.06pp | 29.55% | 4.60 |
| 02_first_recharge_3_7d | 15.40% | 94.96% | -0.37pp | 29.55% | 4.61 |
| 03_first_recharge_gt_7d | 38.14% | 95.01% | -0.32pp | 29.57% | 4.61 |
| time_issue_before_first_recharge | 0.08% | 106.87% | +11.54pp | 29.93% | 5.26 |
| unknown | 6.15% | 90.87% | -4.46pp | 29.31% | 4.28 |
3. 下注区间
| 下注区间 | 局数占比 | 投注占比 | RTP | 相对整体 | 中奖率 | 波动率 | 10x+率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_<0.20 | 0.10% | 0.02% | 96.96% | +1.63pp | 19.05% | 8.10 | 1.79% |
| 01_0.20-0.49 | 42.38% | 18.58% | 95.30% | -0.03pp | 29.58% | 4.56 | 2.13% |
| 02_0.50-0.99 | 32.87% | 22.59% | 95.34% | +0.01pp | 29.16% | 4.66 | 2.05% |
| 03_1.00-1.99 | 15.72% | 20.66% | 95.43% | +0.10pp | 29.18% | 4.66 | 2.08% |
| 04_2.00-4.99 | 7.65% | 22.09% | 95.39% | +0.06pp | 32.04% | 4.56 | 2.01% |
| 05_5.00-9.99 | 0.81% | 5.48% | 95.16% | -0.17pp | 30.86% | 4.38 | 2.14% |
| 06_10.00-49.99 | 0.45% | 7.61% | 95.24% | -0.09pp | 34.45% | 4.28 | 1.84% |
| 07_>=50.00 | 0.03% | 2.97% | 94.86% | -0.47pp | 42.19% | 3.33 | 1.62% |
4. 厂商/游戏差异
| 厂商 | 局数 | 投注 | RTP | 中奖率 | 波动率 | 10x+率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 249,067,503 | 214,428,500.96 | 95.31% | 30.12% | 4.71 | 2.01% |
| Tada | 53,554,432 | 47,284,493.10 | 95.58% | 29.35% | 4.36 | 2.02% |
| PP | 22,977,310 | 19,828,057.06 | 95.08% | 28.70% | 4.45 | 2.33% |
| G759 | 12,450,555 | 10,783,096.50 | 95.47% | 28.55% | 4.42 | 2.27% |
| Spribe | 1,663,604 | 8,819,129.88 | 94.64% | 29.44% | 4.15 | 1.23% |
| CP | 9,446,071 | 8,669,324.80 | 95.00% | 23.31% | 4.48 | 2.84% |
| POPOK | 10,776,540 | 8,622,071.96 | 95.03% | 29.94% | 4.49 | 2.72% |
| PANDA | 8,327,484 | 6,342,133.60 | 96.01% | 29.36% | 4.10 | 2.28% |
| FaChai | 4,541,858 | 4,931,438.35 | 96.79% | 30.65% | 4.46 | 2.19% |
| JDB | 2,411,109 | 2,218,167.22 | 95.33% | 28.14% | 3.31 | 0.98% |
| FASTSPIN | 2,003,802 | 1,447,858.18 | 94.72% | 27.51% | 4.50 | 2.38% |
| PLAYSON | 1,847,454 | 1,323,310.70 | 94.85% | 23.65% | 4.20 | 2.41% |
| 厂商 | 游戏 | 局数 | RTP | 中奖率 | 波动率 | 10x+率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Fortune Tiger | 48,040,486 | 95.56% | 29.50% | 4.93 | 1.67% |
| PG | Fortune Rabbit | 28,358,380 | 94.91% | 30.26% | 4.41 | 1.83% |
| PG | Fortune Ox | 22,884,434 | 95.37% | 27.89% | 5.74 | 1.64% |
| PG | Fortune Dragon | 22,058,998 | 95.99% | 33.38% | 4.41 | 2.59% |
| PG | Pinata Wins | 20,099,767 | 94.91% | 30.48% | 4.45 | 2.04% |
| PG | Fortune Snake | 20,412,476 | 95.47% | 29.43% | 4.66 | 2.77% |
| PG | Mr. Treasure's Fortune | 10,319,320 | 95.32% | 30.17% | 4.49 | 2.06% |
| Tada | Lucky Jaguar 500 | 10,327,035 | 95.59% | 29.30% | 4.37 | 2.10% |
| POPOK | Yo Dragon | 7,671,092 | 95.03% | 30.10% | 4.48 | 2.79% |
| G759 | Rabbit's Grace | 6,483,097 | 95.47% | 29.25% | 4.38 | 2.15% |
| Spribe | Aviator | 1,190,997 | 94.99% | 24.33% | 4.48 | 1.47% |
| PG | Fortune Mouse | 6,284,257 | 95.64% | 30.25% | 4.79 | 1.31% |
| PG | Wild Bounty Showdown | 5,480,693 | 95.39% | 30.58% | 4.52 | 2.04% |
| Tada | Fortune Gems 500 | 4,829,738 | 95.02% | 29.21% | 4.37 | 1.88% |
| PG | Cash Mania | 4,008,797 | 94.88% | 29.40% | 4.80 | 3.13% |
5. 累充与总盈利比例
| 盈利/累充比例桶 | 用户占比 | 投注占比 | 累充占比 | 平均比例 | 中位比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_no_deposit_or_unknown | 55.68% | 5.72% | 0.00% | ||
| 01_user_loss_>=100pct_deposit | 17.67% | 22.18% | 15.05% | -189.86% | -143.31% |
| 02_user_loss_50_100pct | 8.74% | 17.70% | 17.95% | -79.86% | -81.57% |
| 03_user_loss_0_50pct | 8.93% | 28.10% | 43.08% | -24.54% | -24.13% |
| 04_user_profit_0_50pct | 3.68% | 13.00% | 15.81% | 21.91% | 20.40% |
| 05_user_profit_50_100pct | 1.87% | 5.08% | 4.30% | 72.49% | 71.28% |
| 06_user_profit_100_300pct | 2.38% | 5.38% | 3.13% | 173.14% | 161.06% |
| 07_user_profit_300_1000pct | 0.92% | 2.11% | 0.62% | 490.88% | 435.65% |
| 08_user_profit_>=1000pct | 0.13% | 0.73% | 0.06% | 1863.58% | 1443.59% |
6. control 字段/策略控制线索
| control | 局数占比 | RTP | 中奖率 | 波动率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.00% | 95.33% | 29.59% | 4.61 |
TA99 新平台数据
整体 RTP94.06%
中奖率28.84%
波动率4.87
10x+ 大奖率2.014%
1. 时间段与周期波动
| 时间段 | 局数占比 | RTP | 相对整体 | 中奖率 | 波动率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_凌晨_00_05 | 32.61% | 93.77% | -0.29pp | 28.97% | 4.88 |
| 01_上午_06_11 | 15.49% | 95.48% | +1.42pp | 28.78% | 4.89 |
| 02_下午_12_17 | 24.48% | 92.75% | -1.31pp | 28.75% | 4.82 |
| 03_晚上_18_23 | 27.41% | 94.86% | +0.79pp | 28.82% | 4.91 |
小时/日期波动只能说明聚合体验随时间变化，不能单独证明后台按时间调 RTP；需要供应商配置版本、RNG 日志和实验组字段来升级证据。
2. 新手 24 小时与普通玩家
| 注册后阶段 | 局数占比 | RTP | 相对整体 | 中奖率 | 波动率 | 10x+率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_register_0_24h | 1.64% | 95.44% | +1.38pp | 27.99% | 4.90 | 1.90% |
| 01_register_24_72h | 0.70% | 95.77% | +1.70pp | 29.37% | 4.94 | 2.02% |
| 02_register_3_7d | 0.70% | 96.82% | +2.75pp | 29.15% | 4.56 | 2.08% |
| 03_register_gt_7d | 70.10% | 93.91% | -0.16pp | 28.86% | 4.86 | 2.02% |
| unknown | 26.87% | 94.18% | +0.12pp | 28.84% | 4.90 | 2.01% |
| 首充后阶段 | 局数占比 | RTP | 相对整体 | 中奖率 | 波动率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_first_recharge_0_24h | 10.18% | 92.72% | -1.35pp | 28.98% | 4.65 |
| 01_first_recharge_24_72h | 3.95% | 92.78% | -1.28pp | 29.41% | 4.64 |
| 02_first_recharge_3_7d | 5.93% | 95.84% | +1.77pp | 29.21% | 4.67 |
| 03_first_recharge_gt_7d | 67.74% | 94.29% | +0.23pp | 28.71% | 4.97 |
| time_issue_before_first_recharge | 6.06% | 92.11% | -1.96pp | 29.36% | 4.68 |
| unknown | 6.14% | 90.75% | -3.31pp | 28.87% | 4.64 |
3. 下注区间
| 下注区间 | 局数占比 | 投注占比 | RTP | 相对整体 | 中奖率 | 波动率 | 10x+率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_<0.20 | 0.40% | 0.02% | 101.66% | +7.60pp | 27.84% | 6.25 | 2.16% |
| 01_0.20-0.49 | 40.60% | 9.75% | 93.78% | -0.28pp | 28.82% | 4.89 | 2.08% |
| 02_0.50-0.99 | 30.31% | 11.70% | 93.92% | -0.14pp | 28.63% | 4.92 | 1.97% |
| 03_1.00-1.99 | 15.49% | 11.44% | 93.82% | -0.25pp | 28.48% | 4.78 | 2.00% |
| 04_2.00-4.99 | 9.99% | 16.74% | 93.79% | -0.27pp | 30.17% | 4.82 | 1.94% |
| 05_5.00-9.99 | 1.55% | 5.88% | 94.04% | -0.02pp | 27.42% | 4.78 | 1.98% |
| 06_10.00-49.99 | 1.17% | 12.33% | 93.64% | -0.43pp | 30.76% | 4.25 | 1.75% |
| 07_>=50.00 | 0.49% | 32.13% | 94.59% | +0.53pp | 29.18% | 4.79 | 1.75% |
4. 厂商/游戏差异
| 厂商 | 局数 | 投注 | RTP | 中奖率 | 波动率 | 10x+率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 17,667,071 | 25,718,093.70 | 94.04% | 29.23% | 1.94% | |
| Tada | 2,318,441 | 5,726,241.68 | 94.59% | 28.02% | 2.05% | |
| Spribe | 291,265 | 2,029,462.58 | 95.29% | 21.57% | 1.41% | |
| PP | 1,174,352 | 1,561,951.77 | 93.53% | 28.79% | 2.22% | |
| POPOK | 863,370 | 1,317,087.44 | 92.88% | 29.62% | 2.70% | |
| PANDA | 675,202 | 1,001,858.00 | 95.17% | 29.33% | 2.20% | |
| CP | 369,668 | 598,315.70 | 93.22% | 23.41% | 2.76% | |
| G759 | 564,540 | 536,713.30 | 91.85% | 27.48% | 2.35% | |
| FaChai | 268,134 | 330,667.91 | 93.85% | 30.59% | 2.08% | |
| Evolution | 8,472 | 286,932.48 | 95.99% | 50.08% | 0.96% | |
| JDB | 133,534 | 161,893.99 | 93.20% | 28.07% | 1.08% | |
| FASTSPIN | 93,997 | 67,668.06 | 95.78% | 27.10% | 2.48% |
| 厂商 | 游戏 | 局数 | RTP | 中奖率 | 波动率 | 10x+率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Fortune Tiger | 4,304,771 | 94.83% | 29.06% | 1.64% | |
| PG | Fortune Ox | 1,859,402 | 94.64% | 27.61% | 1.62% | |
| PG | Fortune Rabbit | 2,225,442 | 92.82% | 29.93% | 1.80% | |
| Spribe | Aviator | 232,153 | 95.32% | 20.03% | 1.56% | |
| PG | Fortune Dragon | 1,409,647 | 93.60% | 30.95% | 2.56% | |
| Tada | Lucky Jaguar 500 | 319,767 | 92.28% | 28.99% | 2.05% | |
| PG | Pinata Wins | 1,174,968 | 94.53% | 29.55% | 1.95% | |
| POPOK | Yo Dragon | 610,895 | 92.88% | 29.68% | 2.76% | |
| Tada | Fortune Gems 3 | 138,564 | 96.86% | 21.76% | 2.22% | |
| PG | Fortune Snake | 1,381,945 | 93.13% | 25.17% | 3.13% | |
| PG | Mr. Treasure's Fortune | 528,695 | 95.57% | 29.97% | 1.93% | |
| PG | Wild Bounty Showdown | 411,859 | 93.58% | 29.85% | 1.89% | |
| Tada | Fortune Gems 500 | 274,982 | 97.77% | 29.39% | 1.83% | |
| Tada | Money Coming | 71,311 | 96.63% | 23.30% | 2.85% | |
| PG | Wild Bandito | 374,382 | 92.69% | 29.85% | 2.01% |
5. 累充与总盈利比例
| 盈利/累充比例桶 | 用户占比 | 投注占比 | 累充占比 | 平均比例 | 中位比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00_no_deposit_or_unknown | 57.56% | 2.49% | 0.00% | ||
| 01_user_loss_>=100pct_deposit | 20.99% | 12.47% | 8.47% | -180.98% | -133.04% |
| 02_user_loss_50_100pct | 7.50% | 19.11% | 15.75% | -78.13% | -78.80% |
| 03_user_loss_0_50pct | 6.10% | 56.27% | 66.95% | -26.59% | -27.49% |
| 04_user_profit_0_50pct | 3.10% | 6.06% | 6.37% | 22.48% | 21.42% |
| 05_user_profit_50_100pct | 1.73% | 1.71% | 1.34% | 72.20% | 71.20% |
| 06_user_profit_100_300pct | 2.03% | 1.38% | 0.95% | 177.11% | 163.44% |
| 07_user_profit_300_1000pct | 0.85% | 0.44% | 0.15% | 502.65% | 449.62% |
| 08_user_profit_>=1000pct | 0.13% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 1929.39% | 1395.50% |
6. control 字段/策略控制线索
| control | 局数占比 | RTP | 中奖率 | 波动率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.00% | 94.06% | 28.84% | 4.87 |
对接下来算法的指导
- 新手保护不要做成暗中调低/调高单人 RTP；建议做成聚合层面的低波动首推游戏池、首局任务、透明小额权益和体验监控。
- 算法看板必须同时看 RTP、中奖率、波动率、10x+ 大奖率和低 RTP 尾部；单看整体 RTP 会误判。
- 下注区间要单独监控。高下注如果 RTP/波动/大奖率长期偏离低下注，先查游戏池、供应商、局号和风控配置，不直接归因为用户价值策略。
- 累充/盈利比例适合作为风控和资金压力监控，不适合作为干预单人输赢的开关。可以设置人工复核阈值，但合法中奖仍应正常结算。
- 下一轮测试应强制写入 experiment_id、strategy_id、algorithm_version、provider_config_version，才能把“相关性”升级为“策略效果证据”。